End of an era? Commodore predicted to be replaced by Compact SUV

[Brazen]

Holden have announced today that they have selected the cars it will be building in 2018.

Goal to have two Top 10 selling models to survive.

My take? I think a compact SUV is a certainty, however I feel that it will be built on the Cruze platform along with the Cruze, thus there is another platform Holden will build which is unaccounted for - this could still be a large car.


It is also worth noting the top 10 sellers nowadays are small cars, Commodore/Camry and Dual cab utes. But as the article explains it does look like Commodore's days are numbered.

http://www.carpoint.com.au/news/2012...del-line-33114


words - Bruce Newton


Compact Holden SUV expected to replace iconic Commodore in local production


Holden appears certain to replace the iconic Commodore large car in local production with a compact SUV.

GM Holden Managing Director Mike Devereux confirmed at today’s media preview that a second model line had been selected to join the Cruze small car in local production in the second half of this decade.

“We know what that second vehicle line is right now,” Mr Devereux said.

While the new Cruze will be launched here in the second half of 2015, the second model line kicks off after the forthcoming 2014 VF Commodore finishes up in 2018.

While Mr Devereux would not confirm what that model line is, motoring.com.au sources insist it is a compact SUV.

Commodore has been the cornerstone of Holden’s local design, engineering and manufacturing business, since first launching in 1978.

Mr Devereux said he would not reveal the second model line because he wanted no distraction from the VF Commodore, which will be revealed around March and go on sale by mid-2013.

“We are not giving you any indications about that second model line because it would infer what the future is for Commodore, and that is something that is an interesting debate because we haven’t even launched our next Commodore,” Mr Devereux said.

“The second model just distracts people from what we should be focussed on, which is Commodore VF.”

The move from large car to SUV seems certain because sales of the former are dwindling and the latter booming, sales up 30 per cent year-on-year. Mr Devereux stipulated whatever Holden builds, both must be top 10 sellers to achieve profitable economies of scale.

“There is no room for error and they have to be top-selling vehicles,” he explained. “There are not that many brands that even could build cars in this country and survive because they have to have enough strength of brand to be able to have two of the top 10 vehicles in the country.”

General Motors is developing its new D2XX architecture to replace the Delta II platform that underpins the current locally built Cruze and the Theta platform used by the imported Captiva five- and seven-seat SUV.

Holden has committed to building models based on two global platforms out to 2022 in Australia. Derivations of D2XX suitable for Cruze and a compact SUV will be technically diverse enough under GM categorisation to be classed as different platforms.

Work commences in two months on the Elizabeth plant to reconfigure the assembly line for future models, while Holden design is already competing against other General Motors studios for interior and exterior design themes.

“Both of the vehicles we would be thinking of making here we’ve got people involved in sketch processes,” Mr Devereux said.

Mr Devereux said there were no export plans currently under development for any forthcoming vehicles, although he did not rule out potential opportunities depending on currency exchange rates.

“The business plan does not rely on exports today and will not rely on exports in the future,” he said.

Latest news from the 2012 Australian International Motor Show at www.motoring.com.au

[Road_Warrior]

If Commodore continues, I feel production of it may go offshore (Stateside).

[mik]

oohh goody probably more bloody fwd`s............

[flappist]

I suspect this will be a very interesting gamble. A significant part of the "holden appeal" is that it is a "true blue fair dinkum 100% ridgie didge aussie tradition mate" (regardless of the truth).

The lack of an "Australian" style model will put holden (and Ford for that matter should they kill Falcon) head to head with Toyota etc. with only their reliability and quality as selling points.

[FGII-XR6]

could be just the incentive ford need to keep the falcon alive after all it will lose it's only real competition in the true blue stakes

[LTDmonger]

Remember when Holden downsized from the Kingswood to the smaller Commodore? Sales were strong at first but tanked after a few years and gave Ford market leadership.
When Ford abandoned the Fairlane/LTD what sales increased?...Caprice and the 300c.
What did the taxi drivers use when Holden deleted the bench seat/taxi pack option?...the Falcon.
GM always seem to be the first to make rash knee jerk reactions(not Ford as many are lead to believe) to market volatility and as a result look at the mess they got themselves into in the US.
What people forget is that automotive tastes run in cycles,what's in one day is out the next...suv's included... 15 years from now a p-plater's not going to want to be seen in a car his folks carted him around in.

[pursuit2359]

The objective for Holden is to produce two vehicles in Australia that will achieve about 100,000 annual sales - and the Commodore and Cruze aren't currently achieving this. Based on 1,000,000 new car sales annually, 100k would equate to 10 per cent market share, which is a big ask for two vehicles.

Holden has already submitted its plans to the federal government, but a Commodore type vehicle (i.e. large RWD) can almost certainly be ruled out as the global sales aren't sufficient to support the development of a low-cost RWD platform. As for whether the second Australian-built vehicle is the next generation Malibu or an SUV, I suspect we're in the realms of speculation.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by pursuit2359

The objective for Holden is to produce two vehicles in Australia that will achieve about 100,000 annual sales - and the Commodore and Cruze aren't currently achieving this. Based on 1,000,000 new car sales annually, 100k would equate to 10 per cent market share, which is a big ask for two vehicles.

Holden has already submitted its plans to the federal government, but a Commodore type vehicle (i.e. large RWD) can almost certainly be ruled out as the global sales aren't sufficient to support the development of a low-cost RWD platform. As for whether the second Australian-built vehicle is the next generation Malibu or an SUV, I suspect we're in the realms of speculation.

With the australian market the way it is with so many vehicles available across so many manufacturers, no one will ever be able to corner 10% of the market with 2 vehicles. Those days are over.

[Mighty Reds]

If the Chevrolet SS sales are half decent surely GM will start building it there and then just export it back here.

[Ford_The_Win]

Meh. If they keep building here and keep Australians employed, fantastic. But I really couldn't care less what comes out of the factory, I certainly won't be buying one. It's gonna be interesting to watch them struggle to sell 100k per year from two models, the Holden name turned to poison a while back, look at how Mazda is killing them with model vs model sales, and Toyota is slaughtering them this year across the board, and that's with some very lacklustre vehicles.

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by Ford_The_Win

Meh. If they keep building here and keep Australians employed, fantastic. But I really couldn't care less what comes out of the factory, I certainly won't be buying one. It's gonna be interesting to watch them struggle to sell 100k per year from two models, the Holden name turned to poison a while back, look at how Mazda is killing them with model vs model sales, and Toyota is slaughtering them this year across the board, and that's with some very lacklustre vehicles.

Bear in mind that Mazda and Toyota (and Hyundai) are the biggest advertisers on TV, so they do pay for their growth and marketshare.

[Falcman0o7]

I do not see the end of commodore.

[EgoFG]

They could build pencil sharpeners and people would acclaim them as the best transport Australia has seen !

[svo supporter]

Sounds like they're killing off the Commodore name, but not killing production of Holden vehicles....Very much like Ford are killing the Falcon name, not the production of Ford vehicles

The market place has changed, where people want smaller cars, rather than the larger cars, like the Falcon/Commodore. And those 2 names are associated with a big car. Hence why Toyota, Mazda and alikes are thriving in the market place.

As long as Aussies still have a job, who cares what the badge on the car says.

[jpd80]

Could Falcon actually outlive Commodore just to tick off certain sections of the press?

[tranquilized]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Could Falcon actually outlive Commodore just to tick off certain sections of the press?

I reckon it just might! But only by about a year or so...

[EgoFG]

I reckon there is something Ford is not telling us - it seems not worth a complete tophat on a car that was being decommissioned.

Grill and lights would do ... if anything

Originally Posted by tranquilized

I reckon it just might! But only by about a year or so...

[GTP534]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Could Falcon actually outlive Commodore just to tick off certain sections of the press?

I would dearly love to see that come to pass!

[Archilino]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Could Falcon actually outlive Commodore just to tick off certain sections of the press?

Or falcon outlives Commodore to have an extra 3500 odd buyers a month looking at The only other RWD large Aussie car? Not the worst plan...

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Could Falcon actually outlive Commodore just to tick off certain sections of the press?

Ford is seeing how it's products can become incorporated. Where as GM is still running like GM.

So it could be likely scenario. Ford have already said they will compete in every segment.. even the E segment.

[Neale]

I wonder how they will go with V8 supercars?? maybe they will enter a V8 cruise or Captiva

[zilo]

A slide in the Aussie dollar versus US dollar and all will be well again.

[Nikked]

Originally Posted by Ugg

A slide in the Aussie dollar versus US dollar and all will be well again.

No...

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by Ugg

A slide in the Aussie dollar versus US dollar and all will be well again.

The chances of that happening in the next few years is pretty remote.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

The chances of that happening in the next few years is pretty remote.

A slow down in coal mining is already happening, I wonder how our commodity basd dollar fairs with lower commodity prices.
Can you imagine what a lower dollar would do to petrol prices...$2.00/litre?

I take the view that Ford Australia will dig in and try to make Falcon last man standing, hopefully snare more market share...

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

A slow down in coal mining is already happening, I wonder how our commodity basd dollar fairs with lower commodity prices.
Can you imagine what a lower dollar would do to petrol prices...$2.00/litre?

I take the view that Ford Australia will dig in and try to make Falcon last man standing, hopefully snare more market share...

What about LPG... there would be a surge in EcoLPi.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by Buntz

What about LPG... there would be a surge in EcoLPi.

LPG is a boutique fuel popular in a few small areas but is not particularly suitable in many others. Outside commercial use in cities it has had a very slow uptake. Quite simply as a private user if your primary focus is saving money then buying NEW as opposed to used or ex govt fleet will almost never be considered. Look how many of AFFs LPG fanatics have actualy bought a new EcoLpi despite them being available for well over a year now.

If the price of petrol does go bezerk I suspect the main trend will be toward smaller petrol engined vehicles which use less fuel rather than cheaper fuel.

[falconnut]

as much as a dislike gm in general its sad to loose the 2nd last aussie rwd car.

RIP Commadore

[Joe5619]

Aren’t they saying they want 2 models inside the top ten & saying 2000/ month each? My maths takes that to only 48000. There has to be some major exports in these workings as they have also said in the past they want to built 100K per year.. So where is the other 50K going?

[Windsor220]

Falcon has already outlasted everything else from Holden. No reason it can't outlive Commodore too.