Vfacts august 2019

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Diesel will still be required for remote areas, its economy and the restrictions on taking petrol into some areas will see to that. Toyota has said they will keep doing diesel on LC and Prado, too.

However, it will be legislated out of common occurrence starting out in Euro cities and expanding outward. Because of particulates (and going on in the background, maybe because of peak diesel production). Petrol is improving too, and until electric there are two paths: one, the hybrid and two, what Mazda is trying.

New era diesels and particulate filters are coming, amazing what the threat of legislation does..
We shouldn't read too literally everything that's being printed.....
There is no such thing as peak diesel production, refineries are controlling output to keep prices up.

Hybrid 3.5V6 will be in LC300 and similar is in the big Ford Expeditions and F series - here you have diesel economy, zero low speed/local emissions and fuel consumption. Toyota's RAV4 hybrid is hitting it out of the park at present - this is the big market shift right now.

1. It is my understanding that F150 will get a 5.0 V8 hybrid package shared with Mustang.
2. August sales of RAV4 in the USA was over 48,000, it's full sized truck and full sized SUV sales are terrible.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by jpd80

One thing, new Focus Trend starts at $29,532 DA and goes up from there....
Not sure what Astra starting price is but pretty confident it's nowhere near that..( Answer $21,490..)

Cheapest Mondeo you can get is $37,000 DA.....
that's gotta be $7K-$10K dearer than a Camry / Similar price to ZB Commodore?

Now defunct Equinox base was $27,990 DA but mid model is $32K same as Escape Ambiente...

Almost $30k for a Focus ??? What the hell are they thinking?

The Cerato and i30 in mid spec auto can probably be had for less?

Ford need to compete at the bottom end of every segment. That's how manufacturers get traffic through the door.

If the product is right it gets the ball rolling for future sales, servicing, family and friends seeing the product and also wanting to buy.

Won't happen if you can't get people though the showroom door to start with.

[XR Martin]

There's no profit in selling bargain basement cars.

And most private purchasers don't want them anyway.
Even the rental companies aren't buying them, as they are harder and harder to sell at the end.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

There's no profit in selling bargain basement cars.

And most private purchasers don't want them anyway.
Even the rental companies aren't buying them, as they are harder and harder to sell at the end.

It's not about profit - it's getting people through the doors.

When I bought my brand new top spec Outlander I entered the dealership looking to buy a mid spec ASX.

Take the small car as an example. If you were looking at spending $25k and Hyundai, Nissan, Holden, Kia all had something starting at $22k then you would make the effort to go to the dealerships and see what you can get.

If the other brands were totally out of your range you probably wouldn't bother.

Especially after the Powershift debacle. You need to get people through the doors and great sales people to explain the new car and the totally different transmission now in the car.

[Sprintey]

jpd you are most probably right, hence the 'maybe' in the diesel production point. This fellow's writing piqued my interest

https://srsroccoreport.com/has-peak-...esnt-look-good

original paper

https://www.scribd.com/document/3757...rere-Hall-2018

I've found it difficult to form a decisive view on the matter, many variables including demand, technology, price, interest rate policy, geopolitics, health of economy etc etc. I did note in reading that increasing amounts of other product has been needed to maintain octane levels in petrol. Made me wonder. The article suggests a peak in production in heavy oils occurred mid 2000s as it was substituted as diesel feedstock iirc, and portends 'peaks' happening from long carbon chains down to shorter carbon chains in a succession.

There's no shortage of oil able to be recovered, it's more if EROEI has peaked as it is a high EROEI that permits advanced civilisation. (That's the original article author's position, he studies peaks in commodity production). Shortly after I read the above, Macron tried to ban diesel in France in towns/cities and tried to slug an extra tax on it, which would have been a great way to temper demand, and delay any peak suggested. What he got was yellow vests.

But yeah it's hard to get a proper view of it from the peanut gallery.

[janddbone]

I must be the only one who likes the ecosport, other than the stupid name and its equipment specifications...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by janddbone

I must be the only one who likes the ecosport, other than the stupid name and its equipment specifications...

Apparently you and 29 other people who actually bought one last month....
I thought it would bomb in America but looks like buyers there have accepted it

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

jpd you are most probably right, hence the 'maybe' in the diesel production point. This fellow's writing piqued my interest

https://srsroccoreport.com/has-peak-...esnt-look-good

original paper

https://www.scribd.com/document/3757...rere-Hall-2018

I've found it difficult to form a decisive view on the matter, many variables including demand, technology, price, interest rate policy, geopolitics, health of economy etc etc. I did note in reading that increasing amounts of other product has been needed to maintain octane levels in petrol. Made me wonder. The article suggests a peak in production in heavy oils occurred mid 2000s as it was substituted as diesel feedstock iirc, and portends 'peaks' happening from long carbon chains down to shorter carbon chains in a succession.

There's no shortage of oil able to be recovered, it's more if EROEI has peaked as it is a high EROEI that permits advanced civilisation. (That's the original article author's position, he studies peaks in commodity production). Shortly after I read the above, Macron tried to ban diesel in France in towns/cities and tried to slug an extra tax on it, which would have been a great way to temper demand, and delay any peak suggested. What he got was yellow vests.

But yeah it's hard to get a proper view of it from the peanut gallery.

I know that after Euro govts were talking bans on diesels, Bosch almost magically
came out with an entirely new approach to diesel emissions that could not be retrofitted
as it had to do with controlling engine temperature more closely (a little colder IIRC)
to reduce particulate generaton and assist the better after treatment process...
I suspect that when this process is demonstrated to the EU, it will give diesel a reprieve.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

It's not about profit - it's getting people through the doors.

When I bought my brand new top spec Outlander I entered the dealership looking to buy a mid spec ASX.

Take the small car as an example. If you were looking at spending $25k and Hyundai, Nissan, Holden, Kia all had something starting at $22k then you would make the effort to go to the dealerships and see what you can get.

If the other brands were totally out of your range you probably wouldn't bother.

Especially after the Powershift debacle. You need to get people through the doors and great sales people to explain the new car and the totally different transmission now in the car.

Unfortunately Ford has moved away from that sales model, the current CEO is enamoured
with higher returns on revenues, so selling more at lower profit levels actually hurts the %
Yeah, I know it sounds fulla Sh... but that's the way the Detroit masters think these days
they would rather take less ultimate profit and gloat about achieving a higher return %.

None of this helps dealers who basically live to sell and service cars, it's like corporate Ford
cannot and will not see the damage selling fewer vehicles is doing to Ford globally.
The system works in America where it's all about selling high profit F trucks and SUVs but,
that experience has not transitioned to our market save for Ranger being a knock out.

I don't know how Ford reconciles this, they're generally $3K-$4K above what our market prices
but it seems that they only want to pick the eyes out of sales with mid/upper trim sales.

Maybe Ford needs to go back to Mulally's slogan 'affordable quality cars'....

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by Brazen

It’s a lot easier to sell Corollas for 30k when the mob across the road are no longer selling large 6 cylinder rear wheel drive cars for 35k

One of the benefits of local manufacturing, it kept a check on prices

The Toyota badge helps even more.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by vztrt

The Toyota badge helps even more.

That and the fact that so much business is now done on credit and leasing with guaranteed buy back prices,
people get a great buying experience, good dealership relationship with servicing and it's back in four years time.

Regardless of brand,
I know plenty of people who do this, they love the vehicles and the service and would never think of shopping around,
so are they sheeple of satisfied customers that just like what they like because (insert brand) looks after them.

I also think this is why cross shoppers have a tougher time because, there's less connection and all about price.

[arronm]

Rumors of a twin turbo V8 for commodore or cadillac. Priced well would bring all the buyers back... Massive hole with no V8 commodore.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by arronm

Rumors of a twin turbo V8 for commodore or cadillac. Priced well would bring all the buyers back... Massive hole with no V8 commodore.

A twin turbo V8 Commodore ?

Lol

[jpd80]

The only TT V8 Cadillac car in the US is the CT6-V at around US$85K a throw.
That's AUS$120K before we speak of anything like transport and RHD version........

better chance of a four door Mustang

here's the business plan

[arronm]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

A twin turbo V8 Commodore ?

Lol

More chance of it happening than a twin turbo falcon.

[arronm]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The only TT V8 Cadillac car in the US is the CT6-V at around US$85K a throw.
That's AUS$120K before we speak of anything like transport and RHD version........

better chance of a four door Mustang

here's the business plan

image

Below is Ford business plan for performance cars.























































.......................

[Franco Cozzo]

I've bought two new Ford's in the past decade (technically three - I bought one and wrote it off 4 weeks later, insurance bought me a replacement!)

It would be great if I could go to Ford's website, choose my car, pick the option packages, pay for it via EFT/CC.

Then it gives me an estimated lead time to delivery (maybe a dealership has one in stock?) with a tracking number - this number is like a freight tracking number, you can see it's estimated manufacture, when it hits the ship, where the ship is, when it hits your local Port, delivery to pre-delivery yard then delivery to my door.

It's a low cost business model and customer is getting what they want without having to deal with a bunch of sales people, the extras lady, 'dealer delivery' fees etc.

The whole manufacturer - wholesale distributor - reseller - customer model is outdated and a lot of other businesses are moving away from this model.

You can buy everything else online so why not cars?

Still have your distributor/franchisee network for traditional customer but you don't need so many of them.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by arronm

Below is Ford business plan for performance cars.
.......................

Go back and read my post again, I was referring to the four door Mustang business plan....

I'm still a little hopeful that Jim Hackett's product think tank will pick up a niche
like a RWD HP car and possibly make it happen with their new fangled development
process where there's shorter lead time bring ideas to engineers and then allowing
them to mix and match modules to get the desired vehicles without all the extra BS
that used to make a NG Falcon impossible.

[Spammy]

Originally Posted by Brazen

It’s a lot easier to sell Corollas for 30k when the mob across the road are no longer selling large 6 cylinder rear wheel drive cars for 35k

One of the benefits of local manufacturing, it kept a check on prices

Really? Corollas sell buy the thousands every month and Ford were struggling to sell a few hundred falcons in the last couple of years they were building them.

[simon varley]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

It's not about profit - it's getting people through the doors.

it's ALL about profit! That's why the non profitable cars are being dropped, and that includes the low spec ones. Long gone are the days when it was purely about numbers. That's why I said Ford won't be unhappy with these VFACTS numbers. All the high selling cars and trucks are hugely profitable, and the low selling ones make a loss

Corporately its called Play To Win, and is the opposite of some companies who just Play To Be In The Game

[Sprintey]

All this talk of business plans and & profit...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I've bought two new Ford's in the past decade (technically three - I bought one and wrote it off 4 weeks later, insurance bought me a replacement!)

It would be great if I could go to Ford's website, choose my car, pick the option packages, pay for it via EFT/CC.

Then it gives me an estimated lead time to delivery (maybe a dealership has one in stock?) with a tracking number - this number is like a freight tracking number, you can see it's estimated manufacture, when it hits the ship, where the ship is, when it hits your local Port, delivery to pre-delivery yard then delivery to my door.

It's a low cost business model and customer is getting what they want without having to deal with a bunch of sales people, the extras lady, 'dealer delivery' fees etc.

The whole manufacturer - wholesale distributor - reseller - customer model is outdated and a lot of other businesses are moving away from this model.

You can buy everything else online so why not cars?

Still have your distributor/franchisee network for traditional customer but you don't need so many of them.

I'm sure that you have the best intentions with saving money but it's a legal nightmare.
In order for your model to work, everything now done by the salesman and dealership
would have to be done at a central booking office and your off ship holding yard would
have to become almost like a super dealership, doing all the vehicle prep and PDI,
registration and insurance documentation and delivery to your door at zero extra charge.

Then you have the issue of arranging a time for delivery and checking the vehicle over
and sign off at your place....what if you find things wrong and don't want to take delivery,
it's already off the truck and he's leaving for his next delivery...

Originally Posted by simon varley

it's ALL about profit! That's why the non profitable cars are being dropped, and that includes the low spec ones. Long gone are the days when it was purely about numbers. That's why I said Ford won't be unhappy with these VFACTS numbers. All the high selling cars and trucks are hugely profitable, and the low selling ones make a loss

Corporately its called Play To Win, and is the opposite of some companies who just Play To Be In The Game

I remember reading that the only vehicles that genuinely make profit
are Ford's full sized trucks and maybe Ranger and the larger SUVs

Everything else barely covers its own replacement costs or loses money.

[danzvtil]

Originally Posted by jpd80

That and the fact that so much business is now done on credit and leasing with guaranteed buy back prices,
people get a great buying experience, good dealership relationship with servicing and it's back in four years time.

Regardless of brand,
I know plenty of people who do this, they love the vehicles and the service and would never think of shopping around,
so are they sheeple of satisfied customers that just like what they like because (insert brand) looks after them.

I also think this is why cross shoppers have a tougher time because, there's less connection and all about price.

Yep, and the fact the Toyota trade in allowance is 60% of what they paid 4 years prior. For contrast a 3yo Cruze trades for $5k, it could only be worse if they put a dsg gearbox in it.

[simon varley]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I remember reading that the only vehicles that genuinely make profit
are Ford's full sized trucks and maybe Ranger and the larger SUVs

Everything else barely covers its own replacement costs or loses money.

and Transit.

that's why Ford NA got out of the car business last year. Trucks, SUVs and Mustang only. Ranger for us, and Transit for Eu. Everything else is borderline profitable at best

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I've bought two new Ford's in the past decade (technically three - I bought one and wrote it off 4 weeks later, insurance bought me a replacement!)

It would be great if I could go to Ford's website, choose my car, pick the option packages, pay for it via EFT/CC.

Then it gives me an estimated lead time to delivery (maybe a dealership has one in stock?) with a tracking number - this number is like a freight tracking number, you can see it's estimated manufacture, when it hits the ship, where the ship is, when it hits your local Port, delivery to pre-delivery yard then delivery to my door.

It's a low cost business model and customer is getting what they want without having to deal with a bunch of sales people, the extras lady, 'dealer delivery' fees etc.

The whole manufacturer - wholesale distributor - reseller - customer model is outdated and a lot of other businesses are moving away from this model.

You can buy everything else online so why not cars?

Still have your distributor/franchisee network for traditional customer but you don't need so many of them.

Genesis sells their cars as you described. You can do the whole process online and I just went through buying a G80 sport.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Genesis sells their cars as you described. You can do the whole process online and I just went through buying a G80 sport.

I think Tesla does something similar too - it's the way of the future.

We're working on implementing this at work, I'm on the cusp of bring automated out of a job

[Sprintey]

I've seen a car showroom on the first floor of our local Westfield. Would be worth buying from them just for the 'driving out of the showroom' experience.

If anyone remembers the Blues Brothers...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIdGxR-aU6o

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by simon varley

and Transit.

that's why Ford NA got out of the car business last year. Trucks, SUVs and Mustang only. Ranger for us, and Transit for Eu. Everything else is borderline profitable at best

A year or so ago, I went through the exercise of comparing quarterly profit for Ford NA vs Toyota NA.
Both sold about the same amount of vehicles but the big difference was Ford and the F Series which
added something like $1.3 Billion profit per quarter over the ~$600M Toyota was getting with mostly
car and SUV heavy sales plus a few Tacomas and some Tundras..

Not to be little Toyota's efforts but more to show how Ford absolutely relies on F Series and commercials
to make the big bucks, maybe the next big thing is low-rider HP trucks / SUVs....

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Mazda have now released their Skyactiv X, which seems to be a mix between petrol and diesel motors, able to run on 91. Review follows, I reckon there is room for significant improvement on the consumption the journos have got.

https://www.caradvice.com.au/772224/...iv-x-review-2/

Complicated engine isnt it, but really need better consumption figures.
why did Mercedes dump theirs?

"In Mercedes’s version from 2007, the 1.8-litre four-cylinder twin-turbo unit claimed a very healthy 177kW and 400Nm of torque while using just 4.4L/100km. It remains officially unclear why the company did not persist with the technology, but it’s likely a case of cost, reliability concerns and market demand".

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

I've seen a car showroom on the first floor of our local Westfield. Would be worth buying from them just for the 'driving out of the showroom' experience.

If anyone remembers the Blues Brothers...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIdGxR-aU6o

Down the escalators, first floor ladies fashion, Ford dealership, and food court.
They use to sell those Proton utes from shopping centres.

Reminds me of the Tesla showroom in Martin Place, Sydney.
I wondered how you took one for a test drive.