Will Falcon prices return to "normal"?

[Crazy Dazz]

And if so when?

So when Ford announced the end of the Falcon, everyone with a Falcon (or part thereof) for sale immediately quadrupled the price.
Plus a lot of people snapped up the GTs and XR8s, with a view to making a profit.
And good luck to them one and and all. Some of those cars did instantly become collectors' items.

This phenomenon trickled all the way down to those selling rusty wrecks for projects. (Yet somehow bypassed my old AU.)

Whilst I'm sure there were a few delusions around, I think that by now what we're dealing with is an actual sustained increase in interest relative to supply. Also need to remember that unlike previous eras where there was a constant oversupply of ex-fleet Falcons, new car sales had been severely diminished for some time.

I'm actually glad that so many have decided to take a renewed interest in the Falcon. Either by hanging on to a late model keeper, restoring an old wreck, or somewhere in between.
But I do wonder if in the coming years we'll see more than a few would-be projects back on Gumtree?

[anobserver]

I would argue that the baby boomer demographic bulge was largely responsible for sky-high prices. That, and the credit-fuelled asset boom that meant buyers could bid up the limited number of collectible cars.

As the boomers die off, I think pricing pressure will ease: Demography is destiny as they say. Some (cars) will always be more valued than others, like the gts and hos. But with all respect to current owners, I can't see run of-the-mill models (unrestored cars, base models) indefinitely fetching the price they do now. The demand will soften.

With boomers disappearing there is demand from the smaller generation X but beyond that into the millenials and gen z I can't see the veneration for collectibles continuing. Look at the uptake of driver licensing: many of the younger generations even delay getting a driver's licence. That never happened in my (gen x) day. ( yeah, now I'm feeling old...)

The skills base is another issue. Each succeeding generation has fewer practical skills to undertake restorations. Sure, there will always be those who can, but with more white collar workers the ready-made and later models may be more attractive to the fewer number of buyers. Though I do think those that bought the last of the sprints and so on are being optimistic thinking they can cash in.

The other pricing influence is the possibility of a severe economic contraction in which owners are forced to liquidate cars to realise cash. Less predictable than demography but with the potential to incur more pricing volatility in the short to medium term.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by anobserver

I would argue that the baby boomer demographic bulge was largely responsible for sky-high prices. That, and the credit-fuelled asset boom that meant buyers could bid up the limited number of collectible cars.

As the boomers die off, I think pricing pressure will ease: Demography is destiny as they say. Some (cars) will always be more valued than others, like the gts and hos. But with all respect to current owners, I can't see run of-the-mill models (unrestored cars, base models) indefinitely fetching the price they do now. The demand will soften.

With boomers disappearing there is demand from the smaller generation X but beyond that into the millenials and gen z I can't see the veneration for collectibles continuing. Look at the uptake of driver licensing: many of the younger generations even delay getting a driver's licence. That never happened in my (gen x) day. ( yeah, now I'm feeling old...)

The skills base is another issue. Each succeeding generation has fewer practical skills to undertake restorations. Sure, there will always be those who can, but with more white collar workers the ready-made and later models may be more attractive to the fewer number of buyers. Though I do think those that bought the last of the sprints and so on are being optimistic thinking they can cash in.

The other pricing influence is the possibility of a severe economic contraction in which owners are forced to liquidate cars to realise cash. Less predictable than demography but with the potential to incur more pricing volatility in the short to medium term.

Well said!

[TICKFORD220]

The prices people are asking aren't actually being paid,ive seen cars advertised for over a year and still not sold.
Unless the cars are rare, rare colours,combinations,mint condition,low km etc premium prices aren't being paid.

[roddy1960]

I recently posted a reply on the Outstanding Service thread but it also related to genuine v non genuine parts thing . I needed to replace the gas struts for the bootlid on my AU . Ford contacted first . For the spoiler variant the price was $140 which my Futura is . Then I asked about the pivot balls/studs . Ford said they still had the ball pivots at about $13 each but the studs that screw into the boot lid side wall were no longer available .
Kind of pointless , one without the other when both corroded . Outstanding service was they provided me with the cross reference part numbers for after market items .

Ended up getting the compliant gas struts (non genuine) for $35 for the pair and $5.75 for the complete stud/pivot balls pair after shopping around .

My AU is now 17 years old so genuine new parts are now becoming a bit more difficult to find by the look of it but I might have to even consider a 'donor car' AU ll one of these days .

My FG XR6 is also now 10 years old built in April 2008 , so maybe it'd be smart for me to start buying the most likely needed parts like struts and so on while they're still available at a reasonable price . I know some things will always be easy enough but others not so much .

[TICKFORD220]

Stock up on your spares while you can.

[GO FURTHER]

Apart from a few rarer models, not only will modern Falcon prices return to normal, but they will depreciate to below normal in the future, and here's the logic;

1. The younger drivers of today never saw Moffat and others driving Falcons around Bathurst as did their fathers who desired and bought those older Falcons later in life and caused the value to increase. So ten or more years from now, our modern Falcons won't have the same desirability.

2. The car industry is on the verge of change like never before seen in our lifetime... In 15 years, people will be moving to fast electric cars with Tesla-like performance, that will make any Falcon GT, XR8, Turbo of today look slow by comparison.

3. People wanting performance cars are moving to Mustangs and cars like the Kia Stinger (which is just the start of imported performance sedans yet to come). Again this lowers the desirability of buying a used modern day performance Falcon.

4. The laws changed since performance Falcons of old ... P-Platers in most states cannot drive a car with over a certain power to weight ratio, so they cannot drive XR6T's, F6's, XR8's and GT's.
Whereas back in my younger days, I could drive an XY, XB GT, etc.
So younger drivers today, look past modern performance Falcons, move on to other cars with less performance, and by the time they are off their P's, have gotten about Falcons.

5. New Australians coming to our country, and buying a car, never grew up here, and have no "emotional connection" to our local Ford and Holden brand heritage.
They come here for a better life, they want to say to their relatives and friends back home... "Look, I've made it in Australia... I'm somebody now"... And "here's a photo of me driving a nice Euro".

6. The older performance XY's, XB's and Falcons of that vintage will always hold more value than modern day Flacons... Because "Classic not plastic".
Pre-emission cars that will run forever not computers on wheels where electronics will fail and be expensive to replace in coming years.

[asagaai]

What is "normal" price for a good is set by the economics 101 law of supply and demand.

Supply is now ended and will be diminishing due to cars crashing, wearing out and rusting away.

Demand-well- who knows what the demand will be.

But -any petrol internal combustion that makes great sounds with internal explosions will set a performance Falcon apart from electric-irrespective how fast the electric vehicle is to 100 kph odd.

I think there will be demand for Falcons that sound great and make the driver feel good when driving them and going WOT.

In terms of computers dying- there will be aftermarket companies like Haltch etc to fill the void.

My take is that performance Falcons with great sounds like the blown 8s and turbo 6's will be desired, and as supply is diminishing- prices for them will likely be going up. Likewise for the naturally aspirated Falcon 8s that sound great.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

This phenomenon trickled all the way down to those selling rusty wrecks for projects. (Yet somehow bypassed my old AU.)

don't worry Crazy Dazz ill come to the rescue
offer you quadrupled the price for your AU
ill give you the $400

[cro142]

While modern performance Falcons may be in demand, my observation is that ordinary Falcons, Fairmonts, and Ghia's, like B series, are in low demand and selling for rock bottom prices if a buyer can be found.

The buying public has moved on. The enthusiasts are actually very low in number.

On the other hand it seems totally rusted-out XY 500 shell or XA coupe is selling for $5K plus and would require $30K+ of rust repairs before starting a restoration. These cars are beyond economic recovery and many would-be restorers will get burned. Crazy.

[roddy1960]

Originally Posted by cro142

While modern performance Falcons may be in demand, my observation is that ordinary Falcons, Fairmonts, and Ghia's, like B series, are in low demand and selling for rock bottom prices if a buyer can be found.

The buying public has moved on. The enthusiasts are actually very low in number.

On the other hand it seems totally rusted-out XY 500 shell or XA coupe is selling for $5K plus and would require $30K+ of rust repairs before starting a restoration. These cars are beyond economic recovery and many would-be restorers will get burned. Crazy.

Most cars are in low demand in the early on years because they're still kicking around and fresh in people's memory . The odd exception of course but generally .

I'll be surprised if the XW or XY GT's in the mid 70's about five or six years after they were built were really sought after for investment reasons . Maybe only chased to give a good hiding with . The GTHO with only 300 built might have been one of those exceptions similar to the last Sprints .

Only got to go to any car show , ask an owner about their pride and joy and most will tell you they've either paid too much to make any sense, spent too much to make any sense or both but desirable cars will invariably see people pay more than their real worth .

Bit like car pricing being referred to as "How long is a piece of string "

[Crazy Dazz]

Wow, some great responses above.

I agree with a few things: The Death of our wealthiest generation will chance the face of Australian society. And yes they probably are the biggest owners of classic cars.

I think amongst my generation, demand will be healthiest for pre-digital cars. There's something satisfying about selecting parts based on fit and purpose, rather than the level of re-programming required. Unfortunately they are also the cars that rust away.

There are a lot of "potential projects" out there, and there just aren't enough parts to go around.

I wonder if changes in repair practices will have an effect on the more modern cars. Few people panel-beat any more, certainly not for insurance jobs, so there's a strong demand for 2nd-hand panels. But as Labour costs go up, there's also more and more cars bing written off with less damage.

I agree too that the modern generation is less enthralled with cars, less interested in working on them, losing the association with Ford & Holden, and if they are enthusiasts, more likely to be into Euros and Ricers.

I don't really look at the prices for vanilla B or F series, so couldn't really say. I do know that the addition of a V8 instantly doubles the asking price.