Peak Oil, diesel first to go?

[Maka]

Hi guys & gals, heres a very interesting read on diesel fuel production falls.

Meanwhile, in France there are riots going on atm over big diesel fuel hikes because of climate change apparently, reading this link may give you the real reason for the price hike & its implications for other countries.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2...oming-for-you/

cheers, Maka

[superyob]

Scarcity/security of supply, rather than climate change fiction, is most likely to fuel protests I imagine. No pun intended.

[lra]

A couple of weeks ago, I saw a TV docu (The city in the sky) which was about how many planes and passengers are in the air at any given time, today. They predicted that by 2050, the number would double, and the congestion problem it would cause, particularly over USA.
I immediately thought “BS”, by that time, unless they find an alternate method of powering an Airbus A380, planes will either be obsolete, or so unaffordable that air-travel will be out of reach of the ordinary traveller/tourist.
As for diesel running out, or being banned in other countries, manufacturers will continue to import, and dump them in Australia, and Aussies will be stupid enough to continue buying them.

[chevypower]

Originally Posted by lra

A couple of weeks ago, I saw a TV docu (The city in the sky) which was about how many planes and passengers are in the air at any given time, today. They predicted that by 2050, the number would double, and the congestion problem it would cause, particularly over USA.
I immediately thought “BS”, by that time, unless they find an alternate method of powering an Airbus A380, planes will either be obsolete, or so unaffordable that air-travel will be out of reach of the ordinary traveller/tourist.
As for diesel running out, or being banned in other countries, manufacturers will continue to import, and dump them in Australia, and Aussies will be stupid enough to continue buying them.

Interesting. Boeing and Airbus have orders that will take them about a decade to fulfill, so they have to prepare well beyond that for the next load of orders. For example, the 797 will launch in 2025. You can bet the order books will be backlogged to 2035 before they roll the first one out in Everett. But according to you, it’s going to be gone just like that. 😂🤣😆

[ozpacman]

Same old, same old mate. The 'Peak Oil' alarmists told us we were going to run out 20 years ago.

I'm not too concerned. Just a few more diesel haters having a sook.

Meh!

[cheap]

Hmm .... 🤔 Maybe I'm missing something, but Diesel and Gasoline are derived from the same stuff - crude oil.

Refining 10ltrs of crude oil produces approximately:

4.6 ltrs of Gasoline (46%)
0.9 ltrs of Kero (9%)
2.6 ltrs of Diesel (26%)
and
1.9 ltrs of (heavy oil, lubricants, asphalt and other stuff) (19%)

These ratios do not move by much and as far as I know there is no way to refine crude oil and not also produce diesel. i.e. you can not one day decide to produce 10 litres of gasoline from 10 litres of crude oil.

The article like all previous peak oil predictions is misleading and full of non-facts.

[Sprintey]

Maka that was a great link and explains some things. Notably

1) why the US shale patch continued to get funding from Wall St even though after the oil fall 2014ish they were insolvent and drowning in debt, funding still got provided
2) why Tesla will appear to be the same, it will get funding, it will be protected. tbtf
3) why the motor Execs are rushing headlong into electric, it's a paradigm change and even greater disruption is predicted
4) and maybe why French diesel went up 25% in last few months before tax mentioned, and banning in Paris mentioned by their government.

One thing I found not quite right with banning diesel, was CO2 arguments - it is from 5% to 30% more efficient than petrol, depending on the weight of the vehicle. Banning must have been justified on particulate emissions - which is a very real health benefit and dovetails nicely into a potential diesel production decline.

cheap thanks for the breakdown of crude being refined. I'd qualify that not all types of crude are the same, and are priced differently too. Within the markets there are price differences between West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Light Crude and others; and these price differences fluctuate over time. For example recently some of the heavy Canadian tar sands product has been as low as $12 a barrel (caused by so much of it being produced while pipeline access to US refineries is at a premium. Furthermore, the US refineries are tooled to process the lighter oils produced through shale and are running flat tack. Perhaps the shortage of diesel production and heavier fuels can be attributed to the refineries being set up for other fuels? But in a market that decline would not continue since 2007 (heavier fuels) - other refineries would adjust to process it if the price rose in relative terms and created an arbitrage.

Depletion in the Eagle Ford basin is real, and happening much more rapidly than a conventional field. Australian produced oil is a light crude, and we export it at higher prices, and import heavier crude for our refineries to break down, pocketing the difference in price - or that's how it used to work. Maybe keeping our countryside fracking free is a smarter plan than we realise...

From what I could understand in the translated article, diesel production is falling, but underneath, the heavier fuels being produced have fallen more. Think bulk cargo vessel fuel - the ones where 6 ships are supposed to pollute more than entire countries' vehicle fleets. Being Spanish or South Americans, the authors contend that supply/demand does not explain this (naughty capitalism and liberalism!) - and what is really happening is the types of crude able to be more easily/inexpensively refined into diesel and the heavier fuels, are not yielding as much of it.

Now how this happens with gargantuan tar sand fields is beyond me. I can understand all the fracking giving lighter crude more easily refined into petrol, I can understand the US becoming a net exporter, I can half support the Russians believing oil is abiotic, digging deeper wells and becoming a producing powerhouse. But I can see that the events I numbered above, can be explained by this hypothesis. Any oil men on the forums feel free to correct me.

One final thing to consider - recent press has come out with scientists telling us all to stop eating meat, go to veggies, eat insects etc. If the spirit of this article is true (gov blames other bogeyman to ban something that is declining) what does that infer for global high end food supply chains? And that's before the Grand Solar Minimum and so many hail/snow/frost events trashing crops...

[Mainforcepatrol]

[QUOTE=lra;6224761]
I immediately thought “BS”, by that time, unless they find an alternate method of powering an Airbus A380, planes will either be obsolete, or so unaffordable that air-travel will be out of reach of the ordinary traveller/tourist.

They have been trialing aviation biofuels for a few years but no doubt it wont come to a grinding halt as they will find alternatives to power aeroplanes.

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Maka that was a great link and explains some things. Notably

1) why the US shale patch continued to get funding from Wall St even though after the oil fall 2014ish they were insolvent and drowning in debt, funding still got provided
2) why Tesla will appear to be the same, it will get funding, it will be protected. tbtf
3) why the motor Execs are rushing headlong into electric, it's a paradigm change and even greater disruption is predicted
4) and maybe why French diesel went up 25% in last few months before tax mentioned, and banning in Paris mentioned by their government.

One thing I found not quite right with banning diesel, was CO2 arguments - it is from 5% to 30% more efficient than petrol, depending on the weight of the vehicle. Banning must have been justified on particulate emissions - which is a very real health benefit and dovetails nicely into a potential diesel production decline.

cheap thanks for the breakdown of crude being refined. I'd qualify that not all types of crude are the same, and are priced differently too. Within the markets there are price differences between West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Light Crude and others; and these price differences fluctuate over time. For example recently some of the heavy Canadian tar sands product has been as low as $12 a barrel (caused by so much of it being produced while pipeline access to US refineries is at a premium. Furthermore, the US refineries are tooled to process the lighter oils produced through shale and are running flat tack. Perhaps the shortage of diesel production and heavier fuels can be attributed to the refineries being set up for other fuels? But in a market that decline would not continue since 2007 (heavier fuels) - other refineries would adjust to process it if the price rose in relative terms and created an arbitrage.

Depletion in the Eagle Ford basin is real, and happening much more rapidly than a conventional field. Australian produced oil is a light crude, and we export it at higher prices, and import heavier crude for our refineries to break down, pocketing the difference in price - or that's how it used to work. Maybe keeping our countryside fracking free is a smarter plan than we realise...

From what I could understand in the translated article, diesel production is falling, but underneath, the heavier fuels being produced have fallen more. Think bulk cargo vessel fuel - the ones where 6 ships are supposed to pollute more than entire countries' vehicle fleets. Being Spanish or South Americans, the authors contend that supply/demand does not explain this (naughty capitalism and liberalism!) - and what is really happening is the types of crude able to be more easily/inexpensively refined into diesel and the heavier fuels, are not yielding as much of it.

Now how this happens with gargantuan tar sand fields is beyond me. I can understand all the fracking giving lighter crude more easily refined into petrol, I can understand the US becoming a net exporter, I can half support the Russians believing oil is abiotic, digging deeper wells and becoming a producing powerhouse. But I can see that the events I numbered above, can be explained by this hypothesis. Any oil men on the forums feel free to correct me.

One final thing to consider - recent press has come out with scientists telling us all to stop eating meat, go to veggies, eat insects etc. If the spirit of this article is true (gov blames other bogeyman to ban something that is declining) what does that infer for global high end food supply chains? And that's before the Grand Solar Minimum and so many hail/snow/frost events trashing crops...

Awesome summary & comments on the link & situation Sprintey, much appreciated!!

cheers, Maka

[Hardtopxb]

Perhaps as the popularity of Electric and hybrid vehicles become more prevalent it may delay the advent of peak oil. Regardless, are Bio fuels a viable alternative?

[mick taylor]

There are people saying that there French government is having to hike up the fuel tax because they have to pay for all the emigration that have flooded the Nation, it's costing billion's to look after such free loaders and the French have become 2ed rate citizens in their own Nation, the money has to come from some where to support this invasion, they are saying the media is lying and the government is trying to oppress the French.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by mick taylor

There are people saying that there French government is having to hike up the fuel tax because they have to pay for all the emigration that have flooded the Nation, it's costing billion's to look after such free loaders and the French have become 2ed rate citizens in their own Nation, the money has to come from some where to support this invasion, they are saying the media is lying and the government is trying to oppress the French.

The French government is known to have the highest tax imposed on its citizens among the European countries and they are not the only ones that have a high influx of immigrants.
Their people hate being taxed heavily on anything and I don't blame them.

France is renown for many riots over the years.


Cheers.

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Hardtopxb

Perhaps as the popularity of Electric and hybrid vehicles become more prevalent it may delay the advent of peak oil. Regardless, are Bio fuels a viable alternative?

Yep but the industry is in its infancy & is going through a big r & d phase atm, this industry is also where ethanol fuels come from though its (ethanol) only part of this particular industry afaik.

cheers, Maka

[csv8]

Nothing wrong with diesel engines. No more diesel, trains and trucks etc will stop. My diesel Captiva averages 750kms per 65l fuel tank. Diesel will be around for the forseeable future.
Electric vehicles might be okay in cities but in the bush ? forget them.. Lack of range and take to long to ''fill up"

[FG50T]

Things change though. 20 years ago picture the cars you had available to you. A selling point on a car was a CD Player, power steering and A/C. None of what we have today was conceivable to 99% of us back then. I expect everything transport related to be straight electric powered in 20 years. They will work out power stations, solar energy and better battery economy pretty quickly.

[jpd80]

Those loopey french,
first they close down all their coal fired power plants and go nuclear power
and then call out everyone else because they are clean and green...

[roddy1960]

A bit of industry news with the alliance possibly of Ford and VW.. Given VDub's diesel stuff ..will that mean anything globally , even for here in that regard , if the alliance actually happens .

https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/...liance--120262..

[jpblue1000]

Originally Posted by Officemanager

The French government is known to have the highest tax imposed on its citizens among the European countries and they are not the only ones that have a high influx of immigrants.
Their people hate being taxed heavily on anything and I don't blame them.

France is renown for many riots over the years.


Cheers.

French will Riot because its tuesday, their tax is probably in the top third but far from the highest in europe!
I was actualy in Paris when the champs elysees burned for the first time in this disruption and the general consensus of those around me of the rioters was they were misguided?


JP

[xeeclipse]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

A bit of industry news with the alliance possibly of Ford and VW.. Given VDub's diesel stuff ..will that mean anything globally , even for here in that regard , if the alliance actually happens .

https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/...liance--120262..

All these companies are prostitutes Rod. The last thing we need is our Ford's being infected with a Volkswagen STD's.

Globalization is spoiling many products. Go ahead collaborate but don't ruin a cars character and defining engineering cues.

[Sprintey]

Nissan: the Ute

Anyone else remember that one?

[MITCHAY]

I thought Europe was phasing out diesels anyway. VW is going to stop petrol and diesel by 2026 apparently and concentrate on electric.

[jpblue1000]

Despite the popularity of Diesels Europe has realised the cost through negative health effects vastly outweighs the benefit to society of diesels, congestion charging, cities banning diesels entering has turned the tide against them. Manufacturers knew this was coming and have been heading in different directions, coupled with the paradigm shift in auto ownership predicted in the western world alternates have never been more appealing.
The writing is on the wall, perhaps we have 200-300-400 10? years of oil left, but the cost is becoming problematic to the point purchasers are wanting alternates, Weather peak oil has happened or not it will and we are seeing the consequences of it now. Plus as above the negative health and prosperity to cities the automobile is now accused off and the other externalities effecting the private use model its certainly interesting times.
JP

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I thought Europe was phasing out diesels anyway. VW is going to stop petrol and diesel by 2026 apparently and concentrate on electric.

That’s not quite right MITCHAY.

VW will “roll out” their last generation combustion engines in 2026. Who knows, those engine may have a life of 5, 10, or more years.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by jpblue1000

Despite the popularity of Diesels Europe has realised the cost through negative health effects vastly outweighs the benefit to society of diesels, congestion charging, cities banning diesels entering has turned the tide against them. Manufacturers knew this was coming and have been heading in different directions, coupled with the paradigm shift in auto ownership predicted in the western world alternates have never been more appealing.

Funny enough went and pick my daughter up from daycare yesterday. The car park was full of these diesel suv's idling at the primary school across the road.
The stench in that area was incredible.

[jpd80]

I notice that like magic, Bosch has a new diesel engine management and exhaust emission after treatment control system that drops emissions massively and puts diesel back on the map.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...diesel-engines

Bosch’s new process optimizes thermal management of exhaust temperatures, slashing NOx emissions to one-10th of the legally permitted limit, and doesn’t require new hardware, Denner said. The system keeps emissions stable even at cold temperatures, he said.

“With this new exhaust technology, blanket driving bans in the centers of the world’s major cities will no longer be an issue. Why? Because we now have the technology to resolve the problem of nitrogen oxides in road traffic," Denner said. The system will be for new diesel cars and can’t be retrofitted, a company spokesman said by phone.

[jpblue1000]

Originally Posted by vztrt

Funny enough went and pick my daughter up from daycare yesterday. The car park was full of these diesel suv's idling at the primary school across the road.
The stench in that area was incredible.

Parts of London have fines and people patrolling school drop offs to stop this happening. Some schools have no drive zones around the entry gates at certain hours to reduce the pollution load at drop off/pick up time Still even in London 30% of journeys are regarded as unecessary being 5 minutes or less driving.
Air pollution is a big deal here and you have to be carefull about where you live if it's an issue for you. We have maps available to us showing pollution intensity which gets down to street level of granularity and cover 5 or 6 key pollutants and particulates.
JP

[kmav23]

We have gone from a fear of peak oil supply to now peak oil demand which i coming fast.

The world is better off relying on the Middle east and Russia for oil and gas.

Every country should be aiming for energy independence for economic and national security issues besides climate change.

[Sprintey]

Agree Kmav, Australia has a lot of CNG too...
US just became net energy exporter news said this week.

And jp, it seems strange that they completely regulate school drop off in London and monitor particulate exposure, but they can't control the knife crime...

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by kmav23

climate change.

Not that long ago it was ''global warming''....

[jpblue1000]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Agree Kmav, Australia has a lot of CNG too...
US just became net energy exporter news said this week.

And jp, it seems strange that they completely regulate school drop off in London and monitor particulate exposure, but they can't control the knife crime...

Lots more people by a magnitude of 100 die of air pollution than knife crime. To date 2018 has seen 87 knife crime deaths, and 9700 pollution related deaths. I haven't been stabbed, haven't seen a stabbing nor know anyone threatened or involved in a stabbing but do suffer from the air pollution. Plus children's developing lungs are more prone to developing pollution related issues than adults, and who frequents schools? young people.
And lets be fair, a city of 8.136 Million the stats aren't so bad. Australia records more firearm deaths per 1000 than the UK by 4 times. the crime statistics between the two countries per population isn't too different.
and interestingly in both countries violent crime without a weapon amount to 80 percent of of the total.
2018 has shown the first real increase (7% according to NHS admissions -assault with a sharp object)in knife crime since 2011. Austerity, slowing economy, and serious cuts to policing have all been identified as contributing factors in the increase.
Actually where we live consistently see levels of particulate in the 50-60 range whereas our house in the city centre of Adelaide records only 11 on the same register. and In two days we leave for home...yay! hope I don't get stabbed tomorrow.
JP